Comentaba anteriormente que el National Intelligence Council o Consejo Nacional de Inteligencia de los EEUU cada cierto tiempo publica sus trabajos e informes de prospectiva sobre tendencias globales. Durante este año esta publicando el Global Trends 2025: "A Transformed World".
En 1997 el NIC publicó el trabajo Global Trends 2010 , en 2000 el Global Trends 2015 , y en 2004, en el marco del proyecto NIC 2020, hizo público un nuevo informe: Mapping the Global Future .
Este tercer informe "Mapping the Global Future, Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project", al igual que la mayoría de las investigaciones en prospectiva se basaba en las opiniones de expertos y presentaba 4 escenarios de futuro.
Este año 2008 ha visto la luz un cuarto informe Global trends 2025 , National Intelligence Council's 2025 Project , con el título "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World". Se puede conseguir el informe completo en formato .pdf, así como el informe sobre escenarios Global Scenarios to 2025 .
Los informes de prospectiva del NIC, no tratan de adivinar el futuro, utilizan la metodologia de escenarios y en este informe sobre tendencias se han descrito tres escenarios:
- Borrowed Time, que describe el camino hacia un futuro insostenible, que deha un mal legado a las generaciones futuras y sin dar respuesta a los grandes dilemas mundiales.
- Fragmented World, que describe un mundo fragmentado donde los organismos multinacionales no pueden dar solución a los problemas.
- Constant Renewal, que describe un futuro más optimista donde existe una comunidad internacional capaz de ir fijando prioridades mundiales e ir dandoles respuesta.
Me ha sorprendido que en esta semana en diferentes medios se hable de un informe del NIC que prevé que los USA perderán su hegemonía sobre el mundo. El informe esta redactado en términos de escenarios, por lo tanto no en términos absolutos, y la referencia al tema que figura en el informe de tendencias (Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, pag. 17) habla de un poder menos dominante por parte de los EE:UU:, aunque señala que seguirá siendo el actor más poderoso ("The United States: Less Dominant Power By 2025 the US will find itself as one of a number of important actors on the world stage, albeit still the most powerful one." )
El informe de 2025 describe un mundo en el que los EE.UU. desempeñan un papel prominente en los acontecimientos mundiales, pero en el que los Estados Unidos es uno de los muchos actores globales que gestionan los problemas. Por el contrario, el informe anterior realizado en 2004 y al año horizonte 2020, hablaba de la continuación de la dominación de los USA.
Probablemente la preocupación sobre los temas energéticos es más importante en este informe del 2025 que en los anteriores, así como los riesgos de carreras de armamentos nucleares o de conflictos entre estados por el control de los recursos, y sin embargo, no se ha destacado demasiado.
Los informes completos se pueden descargar desde la web del National Intelligence Council .
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
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